Defending Bayes, Part 3

Summary

Sharpens distinction between scientific (explanatory) and empirical (timeline) knowledge. Part 1: Scientific knowledge = universal theories (QM, evolution, relativity), evaluated via coherence/simplicity/criticism, not Bayesian updates, applies across all timelines. Part 2: Empirical knowledge = probabilistic, timeline-specific facts (diagnoses, weather, history), quantified by credence, updated via Bayes. Part 3: Sharpness matters—misapplying Bayes to theories = error Deutsch/Hall identify. Part 4: Hybrid cases = parameterized theories (cosmological constants), historical interpretations (blend framework + contingency). Part 5: Other categories = formal/mathematical (a priori), tacit/embodied (skill-based). Comprehensive epistemological taxonomy clarifying when/where Bayes applies.

Tags

• epistemology
• bayesianism
• qbu-framework
• philosophy
• conditionalism
• rationality-critique
• sequence

Cross-References

• Backward: Defending Bayes, Part 2
• Forward: Defending Bayes, Part 4
• Related: Pancritical Rationalism

Notes

• Taxonomy/categorization post
• Includes helpful diagrams (mentioned but not visible)
• Addresses hybrid/boundary cases
• Comprehensive epistemological framework