Bayesianism
Posts tagged with bayesianism.
Posts
- Conditionalism - Philosophical theory: all truth claims inherently depend on implicit/explicit conditions.
- Making Sense of P(doom) - Clarifies P(doom) probability estimates for AI existential risk.
- Objective vs. Subjective Probability
- Effective Decision Theory
- Measure, Vantage, Branchcone, and Counterfactuals - Formal definitions of four key QBU concepts.
- Defending Bayes - First in 5-part series defending Bayesian epistemology within QBU against Deutsch/Hall objections.
- QBism vs. Many Worlds - Compares two quantum interpretations.
- Defending Bayes, Part 2 - Reframes empirical uncertainty as timeline uncertainty—uncertainty about which timeline we inhab
- Defending Bayes, Part 3 - Sharpens distinction between scientific (explanatory) and empirical (timeline) knowledge.
- Defending Bayes, Part 4 - Short post connecting indexical uncertainty (Yudkowsky) with timeline uncertainty.
- Defending Bayes, Part 5 - Extends credence taxonomy beyond timeline uncertainty.
- Heads or Tails - Illustrates Measure vs Credence dynamics via coin flip scenario.