Defending Bayes, Part 5

Summary

Extends credence taxonomy beyond timeline uncertainty. Four valid credence types: (1) Timeline/Indexical uncertainty (primary; which branch am I on?), (2) Logical/Mathematical uncertainty (unresolved proofs, computational limits; e.g., trillionth π digit = 7?), (3) Conceptual/Semantic uncertainty (vagueness, definitional ambiguity; e.g., “baldness at <500 hairs”), (4) Metaphysical/Ontological uncertainty (fundamental nature claims; e.g., consciousness requires biology?). Refinement: Part 2 said credence = timeline uncertainty; now acknowledges broader scope while maintaining timeline as central in empirical contexts. Meta-credence: ~95% confidence this taxonomy is exhaustive (self-reflexive application). Completes Defending Bayes series with comprehensive credence theory.

Tags

• epistemology
• bayesianism
• probability
• philosophy
• qbu-framework
• sequence

Cross-References

• Backward: Defending Bayes, Part 4
• Forward: Defending Bayes, Part 6 - Logical Induction
• Related: Types of uncertainty, credence applications

Notes

• Completes 5-part sequence
• Refines/corrects Part 2 claim
• Acknowledges broader credence scope
• Self-reflexive (meta-credence check)
• Four-category taxonomy